Analyzing Freight Slowdown

[poison]

since the the 8th when we del. in fl. we have stayed available for loads
we were only 30 miles from home so we went there,but stayed available.with no load offers we DH out of Fl. on the morning of the 10th (Sunday).we DH all the way to Jackson,Ga.400 miles, we sat there till the 13th.finally that afternoon we were offered a load to El Paso
we delivered that load on the 15th(thurs.)in the early AM.sat there till
late the next Afternoon nothing happened.moved to Van Horn nothing 5 loads in the last 21 days,nothing happened.this being the weekend we DH
all the way to freaking dallas sat there till tuesday(20th)still nothing
happend so we DH within 40 miles of shreveport.This put us on Marshal,Tx. board and Shreveport board.sat there till sometime the next afternoon.Still no load.So we Move even farther east Where we sat till around 21:00 thanksgiving eve till we were offered an empty move to DH home. 1 load in 2 weeks and our #'s are good.which in my opinion don't mean spit,other then maybe on time rating.so don't tell me things aren't slow I beg to differ.Hope all had a wonderful thanksgiving.

 

[OntarioVanMan]

There you have it in a nutshell...This business has so many variables. To the ones that have been unfortunate not to get loads and be in the wrong place wrong time cycle PLEASE don't call us, that have had the good fortune of being right place right time, a bunch of liars. For IF you really knew this business as it is, you'd know that this can happen.It further shows you haven't been paying attention.

 

[ATeam]

While calling someone a liar without being able to back it up is a rotten thing to do, complaining about slow freight when the freight is truly slow for a particular truck is not out of bounds.

Especially for someone new in the business, it takes a while to figure out what strategies work better than others when it comes to getting loads. And things change too. What might have been a good freight center at one time may not be as good any more. A particular customer that used to have lots of good paying freight may go out of business or change their carrier of choice. New customers appear making a city that was once one to avoid now one OK to layover in. So, even if you have been at it for a while, "paying attention" is an ongoing trial and error process.

One mistake I see people sometimes make is talking themselves out of loads. If it goes in the wrong direction, they decline. If it goes to New York City, they decline. If it goes to Canada, they decline. If it is not a "team load" (whatever that is), they decline. If it does not go over X number of miles, they decline. If it does not pay over X number of dollars. They decline. If the load is offered after a certain time of day, they decline. If the load interferes with their desire to see a movie, they decline.

That is not to say you should take every load. It is to say that some people could have improved results if they were willing to change their minds. In some cases a change of mind will serve an expediter much better than a change of carrier or change in the market.

Another mistake I see people sometimes make is focusing too much on the wrong numbers. Yes, you might have outstanding in-service and acceptance numbers, but that alone is not enough to get good freight.

In an extreme example, we could take a load to Alaska and maybe do a couple short runs up there in a month, and then sit in a remote area for the next month and a half. In two months, we would have a 100% acceptance rating and 100% in service. But those numbers would mean little by themselves. Run count matters. Pay per mile matters.

I have seen more than one expediter live in a bad freight area and sit home waiting for freight. They complain about having good numbers and no freight. It's not about the numbers. It's about being where the freight is most likely to originate from.

There is nothing magic about an express center. Some are better than others. And even the good ones will skunk you once in a while.

Newer expediters who are willing to work and really want to do well will, by paying attention, find their way into a routine that works and continually seek to improve on that routine.

Expediters at all experience levels who are less ambitious or less focused will not do as well. Humility before the freight is an asset in this business. As Lawrence McCord has said so well, "Expediting does not tolerate a personal agenda."

The expediter who thinks he or she has the freight figured out and is locked into a particular set of opinions is an expediter who is probably blinding himself or herself to opportunities that others see and act upon. So too with expediters who try to make expediting into a business that serves them, instead of making themselves into expediters that serve the business.

 

[nightcreacher]

This is why I don't feel things are that slow,sure they may be for some,it's always going be that way,but since I left home on the 4th of Nov,was in Birminham on the 5th,reloaded in Va to del Holland Mi on the 7th.From Holland reloaded in Chicago for Toledo,del on the 8th.On the 8th,loaded in Livonia Mi for Brownsville Tx,del on the 10th.Loaded on the 11th in Houston to deliver in Wi.on the 13th.The 14th loaded Wi for Ar to deliver on the 15th.On the 16th loaded in Ar.went to Mo.to del the 17th.On the 17th loaded in Il,delivered Ga on the 19th.Loaded the 19th in Al,delivered Houston the 20th,reloaded Houston on the 20th delivered Sc.on the 21st,and after that, dead headed home. 9 loads,we grossed over 17000 bucks,not a bad 17 days,is it really slow? guess it might be for some,and yes that was just a little over 10000 miles.

 

[Jefferson3000]

It's amazing how a person may be signed up for a couple months on here with posts that you can count on your hands, and they start calling people out as liars.

It reminds me of that one Senator (forget the name) who helped appoint that new General to go to Iraq and turn things around. But when the General gave his report, he was called a lair and a moron by that same senator.

Freight numbers may have not been optimum in my opinion, but hey, I'm still building a business here. If some of you folks want to sit and blame it on your carrier and how many other carriers are stealing your business, that's just fine. You can complain until the bank takes your truck away. It will just mean even more freight for me.

So sorry. Normally I have lots of mercy for folks not doing well. I've had some lean times. But now I know how to make it through them and I don't plan on going back.


J

[em]"Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed." --Mark Twain[/em]

 

[Roadpig]

It has little to do with the company you're signed on with, unless it's a small, small fleet.

 

[Roadpig]

>Looking over several posts, I think much has to do with the
>type of vehicle and certain markets. The beginning of
>October was weak from slowing economy and several strikes.
>There were still runs, but length of haul declined. We had
>several trucks go to FL and it took several days to get them
>out. A few other times, areas were overpopulated with trucks
>and we had to double dip the LTL market to move at a decent
>rate.
>November on the other hand has been a pleasant surprise, and
>it isn't even over yet.
>What I do see though is much less van freight when looking
>at load boards. I also think there are some companies in
>which their FSC is not keeping pace with the increase in
>fuel as some have posted. So far, we have been doing ok in
>that department.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>Davekc
>owner
>23 years
>PantherII
>EO moderator


Most companies are being told to "get lost" when they try to get a higher FSC. These customers know that somebody is going to haul the freight for what they are willing to pay, so trying to raise that is a hard sell when you've got somebody with their own authority hauling for practically nothing.

 

[poison]

only thing I can say is living in a slow freight area like Fl. is something we have come to learn to live with.but when you hardly ever turn nothing down unless you know for sure the run is going to cost you money.

Example we live hour north of Tampa.We know We will more then likely have to DH out of here to get any freight.So that's a give me.If we start to head north toward say Atlanta and we are offered a load to pick
up in orlando going to Miami that is a load we turn down because as slow as we know freight is in fl. we are not going down there to have to DH
663 miles to atlanta were maybe just maybe we might get a load from that area.

as I said my opinion good #'s don't mean spit except maybe ontime percentage.but just to make our selves clear we had 100% across the board.we went from the 8th to the 13th even after 400 miles DH b4 we were even offered a load.so not counting the 8th that is 5 days without a ##### bit of pay.So after 5 days with making no money when you are offered a laod from atlanta to El paso 1406 paid miles I think it was. YOU ##### right I'm going to except it.But I'm sorry I'm not one that can take a run and say well I made good money on this run I
guess our time off we can just take mini vacation and count ourselves lucky hey lets go to a library and read all day or go to a museum and
look at all the neat stuff,but lets hope maybe we'll get a load.I'm not out here to take mini vacations.Although I do some reading myself
I'm not out here to read books,I'm out here to make money.I"m not a dreamer I'm a realist and If I have to worry about how many trucks are
ahead of me,worry about being in a certain area at the perfect time and then still have to cross my fingers and hope and pray that I get
a good load that will hopefully make me enough money to pay a bill at
home.Then maybe just maybe I am in the wrong sector of the trucking industry.but let me leave you with this I have been driving for sixteen years.And I have never been late on any bill or had to borrow
money from anyone until I got into this BS called expediting.Yeah it's expediting alright.Expedite into the poor house.Not to worry you dreamers won't hear me whine and cry much longer I'm out of it.but here is one more thing to think about.you people say you need to put
some money back on the weeks that you do run so when the slow times come you will not be hurting so bad.Well if you would go get a real job where you are running all the time you won't have to worry as much about putting money back for slow times.The key words there were as much.the most I ever sat and waited for a load in the real truck driving world was a day and a half.so keep dreaming,I'm going to go make some money.Happy reading and let me know just how those mini vacations are coming.

 

[are12]

Is it just me or did anyone else notice that it is always the same one's bragging, on how busy they are? I can't help but wonder why?

Have our run counts been slower this year? Yes. Have we changed our way of thinking when it comes to being in the right freight lanes? Many, many times over but that does not always seem to help since no one can predict where the next expedited load will come from.

I am sorry, ATeam, but you can write all types of strategies on how you need to change your way of thinking, in order to get the freight, but that does not mean it will change anything. If the loads are not there, nothing anyone can do will change that. (Here goes that "L" word) If you are lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, you will get a load, otherwise, you sit or DH to another area, hoping to get a load. With the price of fuel the way it is today, I am sure a lot of O/O's would rather not DH all over the country, on their dime, to get a load. Yes, there are area's that you need to get out of as fast as you can but it is senseless to keep moving from area to area.

Now, here comes the bad news, unless you have a crystal ball that will tell you where your next load will come from, you will never be able to figure this business out. All the planning, strategies and changing your way of thinking is not going to get you a load. However, being in the right place at the right time will. (That's if you are "lucky" enough to pick the right area to sit.)

Jefferson, you write:

"It's amazing how a person may be signed up for a couple months on here with posts that you can count on your hands, and they start calling people out as liars."

Just because someone has only been signed on here a couple of months and only posted a handful of times (unless you have 11 fingers :+ :+ )
does not mean they have not been lurking in the background for many years, as some have stated in the past.

As for calling ATeam "liars", maybe that was a little harsh but that only takes me back to the 1st line of this post.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!!

 

[OntarioVanMan]

How does ones success translate into bragging?

I could also say ...How come it's always the same ones who's whinning and complaining? Don't they ever make money?

JuJu and I have our slower weeks but are fortunate enough to be able to rebound the next...and it all balances out...I am not saying it's busy for us but fairly steady when all is put in prospective.

 

[guest]

Read this article:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKN0922581920070409

 

[Jefferson3000]

"Just because someone has only been signed on here a couple of months and only posted a handful of times (unless you have 11 fingers )
does not mean they have not been lurking in the background for many years, as some have stated in the past."

==========================================

No are12, they certainly can lurk and post as they feel. My point was that he immediately attacked the first two people that had a contrary view from his own experience and declared that both nightcreacher and ATeam were liars. I'm not here to validate Night or Ateam. They can and have spoken for themselves. It would be good to note the increased numbers of "one post wonders" who have appeared recently, only to immediately flame another member or a specific carrier. I am not yet willing to allow these types to just pop in and out, and create more bad feelings between regular members of this site (such as you and I), without us realizing who these problems are coming from.


Drive Safe!

Jeff

Driver for 15 years
O/O for 13 years
OOIDA #829119

[em]"Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed." --Mark Twain[/em]

 

[OntarioVanMan]

remus...I read that article and theres nothing there we all don't already know...U.S Dept reports manufacturing was down again last month...if companies aren't making anything then it would follow there's nothing to ship. Also if housing starts are down theres no need to ship lumber, shingles and bricks or siding...OTR LTL is prolly slower then we are at this time.

 

[are12]

OVM,

Yes, I would consider it "bragging." How often have I come on here and said how busy we are? I may have a couple of times but that is it but, in return, I am not always "whining & complaining" on how slow it is either.

My question, again:
Why is it, when someone posts about it being slow, the same few come on here and claim how busy they are?

Jefferson, as for some of the "one time posters", everyone has a good idea of who they are since they always defend they same posters.

 

[ATeam]

>My question, again:
>Why is it, when someone posts about it being slow, the same
>few come on here and claim how busy they are?

I can't speak for others that talk about being busy but I can speak for myself. When someone posts about it being slow, I come on and say that our team truck is busy. I do not claim that we are busy. I state it. It is a verifiable fact that our business levels, defined in terms of run count and gross revenue to the truck are the same now as they were a year ago. More recently, revenue has increased because the fuel surcharge has also increased with fuel prices.

I do not brag that we are busy. I state that we are busy, in quantifiable, objectively verifiable terms; namely an average of 12 runs a month.

Why do I feel compelled to state that our business has been consistent as others feel compelled to state that their business is slow? Because I want people, especially newbies researching the industry, to know that business is NOT slow for all expediters. Just because business is slow for one, it does not mean that business is slow for all. It would be a lie to suggest otherwise.

In good economic times and bad, there are always some expediters doing better than others, some doing worse than others, and a bunch in the middle. I want people to know the full story about expediting, not just the part talked about by people who are experiencing (for whatever reason) slower freight levels.

That's what an Open Forum is all about, is it not? A veriety of expediters representing a variety of carriers, equipment, driving styles, business purposes and much more, share their experiences and views here, so they and others can take that information into account and chart their own course.

It is also helpful to note that when one expediter is busier than another, it does not mean that the first expediter is better than the other. The more you colapse business or income levels into personal self worth, the more likely you are to feel bad about yourself when you read someone else's success story.

I gave that up years ago. No matter how well you do, there will always be someone out there doing it better. If you equate your business success with your personal worth as a human being, you are destined to wake up a miserable failure every day.

 

[poison]

Well I guess I have to much real truck driver in me or something because
average of 12 runs in a 30-31 day period is not what I call good running
especially for a team.

lets say average for each run was.now this is only an average so lets not get technical.and we all know sure in the world not every run you are offered is 2000 miles or more.so with my electronic brain in hand
here we go.

at 1100 miles per trip x 12 trips =13200 miles
at 30 days is 440 miles a day 220 miles a day for each driver WOW better take a nap.

13200@ oh lets say just for fun $1.35 a mile.=$17820 a month

take a truck payment oh I don't know....what?$2200 now we are down to 15620.
fuel last time I fueled up it cost $400 so lets say in 30 days not knowing what kind of fuel mileage truck gets lets just say out of 30 days you fuel oh just to make my point only 4 times in the month..120 gallons per fill @$3.339=$400.68 x 4 fillups thats $1602.72
a month for fuel now we are down to $14017.28 for the month put something back for the truck any insurance you have to pay for, or any other truck exspences.then pay yourself something how much is really left to say that expediting is where the big money is ,or to say that this is what being a successful expediter is.
now before everyone goes crawling down my throat these are only fictitious figures.for he didn't say how many miles average per trip each of those 12 trips per month were.he didn't say what kind of rate he was getting and he didn't say what kind of fuel prices he was paying.and at least to my knowledge he didn't say how much of a truck payment he has if any.and also these were not necesarily figures directed toward Phil just on an average of 12 trips that he mentioned and a 1100 mile a trip average. I just feel to me that 12 loads in a 30-31 day period is notwhat I call be successful.because we all know that not every trip was 1100 miles or more.and we all know first hand how high fuel ,most of you know not every trip if any or going to pay $1.35 or more a mile.and most of you know how high truck payments are.
but I here some of you talk about how well your doing.Well my hats off to you God has blessed you but Phil did say he was doing about the same as he was doing last year at this time.then he mentioned an average of 12 loads.>I do not brag that we are busy. I state that we are busy, in quantifiable, objectively verifiable terms; namely an average of 12 runs a month."may be I'm wrong as a matter of fact I probably am wrong with my fictitious figures but.subtract all the deductions for truck payment,taxes,fuel,maintenance,driver pay,insurance,etc.How does someone call this successful.stop fooling yourselves it's over.expediting will never be what it was and yes I looked at expediting several years ago talked to several drivers.it sounded pretty ##### good back then.and just because you people that think you are doing good in these slow times,don't think it is going to always be that way.that's why I pulled a refer unit for so many years I know as long as people eat I will have freight to haul.good luck and happy 12 loads a month.

 

[CharlesD]

I have had a couple slow weeks, but for the most part I've been doing pretty well recently. I think a lot of this business is being in the right place at the right time, or being willing to relocate to the right place. I live in Cincinnati, which is a darn good place to be for getting loads, so whenever I get reasonably close to home, that's where I'm going. I've been getting home at least once a week recently, sometimes a couple times a week, and I've still been fairly busy. My slowest week in the last couple months was still over 1000 miles. What I have noticed recently though is that I'm getting a lot of short stuff and I need a lot of those to add up to a decent week. A couple weeks ago I didn't get a load over 400 miles, but I did four of them that week, so it wasn't that bad.

 

[x06col]

Well yes, lets not get technical. But, if most had a couple grand left each week after expenses, maybe, just maybe they'd be satisfied with the outcome. I'm not sure what "big money" means to whom, however, i'd suggest a couple grand sure beats the alternative of working a shop at fifteen bucks an hour.

If a fella needs more than a couple grand a week, maybe they dug themselves in a bit too far. Dunno?

 

[ATeam]

Poison,

It is considered bad form here in the Open Forum to post specific revenue numbers. At least it seems to be since virtually no one ever does it. So, I am not going to either. Another reason I will not do so is because at least two moderators agree that doing so would only create a destructive flame fest. No need for that, so I'll keep the info out of print.

However, if I bump into you on the road, and if you agree to keep the numbers to yourself, I'll be happy to show you our info so you can see for yourself what is possible in a straight truck that is configured, operated and leased like ours.

I will offer here, as I have elsewhere in other posts that we put about 12,000 miles a month on our CR-unit odometer. Our loaded miles are about 80% of all miles. In other words, about 20% of our miles are deadhead miles. Kindly note that the numbers fluctuate depending on the month. These are averages. When you see our actual numbers, they will differ a bit, depending on the time period viewed.

In response to your observations, I offer the following:

1. If I was getting paid $1.35 a mile to haul freight, I would get out of expediting too.

2. Our truck payment will soon be a non-issue. We have made extra payments since we took out the truck loan. In two or three months at the latest, the truck will be fully paid for (purchased June, 2006).

3. It has been pointed out many times here in the Open Forum that it is not how much you gross that matters in the end, it is how much you net. Soon to be operating debt free, having reserve funds sufficient to sustain us for several no-income months, and having only a fraction of the living expenses most homeowners have (we don't own a home or cars), we will be in pretty good shape no matter how slow things get out there.

4. What dos it mean to be successful? As I have said many times, success is what you say it is. We are loving our work and life on the road and are achieving every goal we set for ourselves. Does that make us successful? You darn betchya it does!

5. You said, "stop fooling yourselves it's over.expediting will never be what it was." That is one place where my lack of experience pays off in a big way. Having only been in the business four years, and having never been in a truck before then, I have no point of reference about how expediting used to be, other than what I read. All I know is what expediting has been for us in the last four years. If expediting earnings today are disappointing compared to what they used to be, I'm literally too ignorant to know any different.

When we researched the industry, we did not want to know how to succeed in the past. We wanted to know how to succeed in the present. I think we figured it out. And as sea changes continue to occur in the expedite marketplace, as they have in our industry's 25 year history, I believe we will continue to figure it out.

 

[greg334]

“It is considered bad form here in the Open Forum to post specific revenue numbers. At least it seems to be since virtually no one ever does it. So, I am not going to either. Another reason I will not do so is because at least two moderators agree that doing so would only create a destructive flame fest. No need for that, so I'll keep the info out of print.â€

Phil,
No one ever said that it was bad form to post specific revenue; I think it would be a bad thing to do so in order to boast one’s successes or to rub it into another’s face. I for one have posted specifics and when I need to I will again, no one will tell me otherwise, it is my sort of my right to do so.

I honestly think Poison’s numbers are a good example to people who don’t know what it is about. I would like to see more of them (they can be fictional but realistic and with fuel taxes involved).

Yawn….. on the rest of the stuff you posted, come on Phil you don’t need to defend yourself all the time, some of us look at you as the person who followed the quick path to success and we can all learn from you in different ways.

Oh “As I have said many times, success is what you say it is†I thought that was what I always said? I may be wrong but I thought some time ago, maybe two years ago, we had a thread where there was a lively ‘discussion’ about this and I said that success is defined by the person, not by someone else and you were opposite end defining it. Am I wrong? You don’t need to reply, I just have to think about it – and don’t post all the times you posted that, please.