Recessions are part of the business cycle. They are the flip side of expansions. While difficult to go through, recessions have the benefit of wringing excess speculation, debt and obsolete products and practices out of the economy and setting the stage for new growth.
Recessions vary in frequency, depth and duration. For the most part, people get through them well enough. But this recession is different. Consider the following:
From its record high in October, 2007, the Dow has fallen 47%, "making this the worst bear market since the Dow fell 49% in 1937-38." (Wall Street Journal)
The spread between investment-grade corporate bond yields and Treasury bond yields is the highest since 1932. (Wall Street Journal) (This is a market indicator of corporate creditworthiness. The lower the spread the more credit worthy corporations are perceived to be.)
Sales of cars and light trucks last month were the worst since February, 1983. (Bloomberg)
New home sales in October were the worst in 17 years. (Bloomberg)
When November figures are released, they are expected to show the housing downturn is entering its fourth year. (Bloomberg)
The unemployment rate is at a 14 year high. (Business Week)
Global trade will decline in 2009, the first drop since 1982. (Economist)
The U.S. government has intervened in financial markets more than anytime since the 1930's (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG nationalized; Federal Reserve balance sheet used to prop up Wall Street firms; $700 billion bailout; government protection extended to money market funds; etc.)
I could go on as most economic indicators are down. What is remarkable is the depth, breadth and magnitude of the decline. Things are happening today that we have not seen in our lifetime.
Nor have have the economic experts that are being looked to for wisdom and advice. Their college educations and decades of experience creates a belief system and way of seeing things that they have relied upon for years. With the astounding changes we are seeing in government, the markets and the economic indicators today, I am left wondering how meaningful the sage advice from these experts is today?
I'm not dismissing them out of hand and still listen to their words. But I am also preparing more and more to be surprised. Few people saw coming what is now here. I don't know what surprises may lie ahead (that's why they call them surprises) but expect more to occur.
In our one-truck owner-operator business, this motivates us to batten down the hatches and prepare to ride out a storm. I am confident we will make it through. I just don't know what kind of a world we will be sailing in when the skies clear.
If anyone does know, I am all ears. What do you think the expedite freight marketplace will look like one year and two years from now?
Recessions vary in frequency, depth and duration. For the most part, people get through them well enough. But this recession is different. Consider the following:
From its record high in October, 2007, the Dow has fallen 47%, "making this the worst bear market since the Dow fell 49% in 1937-38." (Wall Street Journal)
The spread between investment-grade corporate bond yields and Treasury bond yields is the highest since 1932. (Wall Street Journal) (This is a market indicator of corporate creditworthiness. The lower the spread the more credit worthy corporations are perceived to be.)
Sales of cars and light trucks last month were the worst since February, 1983. (Bloomberg)
New home sales in October were the worst in 17 years. (Bloomberg)
When November figures are released, they are expected to show the housing downturn is entering its fourth year. (Bloomberg)
The unemployment rate is at a 14 year high. (Business Week)
Global trade will decline in 2009, the first drop since 1982. (Economist)
The U.S. government has intervened in financial markets more than anytime since the 1930's (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG nationalized; Federal Reserve balance sheet used to prop up Wall Street firms; $700 billion bailout; government protection extended to money market funds; etc.)
I could go on as most economic indicators are down. What is remarkable is the depth, breadth and magnitude of the decline. Things are happening today that we have not seen in our lifetime.
Nor have have the economic experts that are being looked to for wisdom and advice. Their college educations and decades of experience creates a belief system and way of seeing things that they have relied upon for years. With the astounding changes we are seeing in government, the markets and the economic indicators today, I am left wondering how meaningful the sage advice from these experts is today?
I'm not dismissing them out of hand and still listen to their words. But I am also preparing more and more to be surprised. Few people saw coming what is now here. I don't know what surprises may lie ahead (that's why they call them surprises) but expect more to occur.
In our one-truck owner-operator business, this motivates us to batten down the hatches and prepare to ride out a storm. I am confident we will make it through. I just don't know what kind of a world we will be sailing in when the skies clear.
If anyone does know, I am all ears. What do you think the expedite freight marketplace will look like one year and two years from now?
