Well, a lot of us are getting out. We've had recent posts from long time expediters saying they're getting out. Some because it's no longer worth it, but in particular those who are faced with it being the time up upgrade to a new vehicle and knowing that is simply not financially feasible to lay out that kind of money for a new vehicle and to outfit it for expediting. They know how easy it is even in good times to suddenly find yourself behind in relentless bank payments, and they don't want anything to do with it during bad times.
Those of us who are staying in it have been doing this for a long time and know how to work the system and manage things to deal with the down times, and most of us learned that hard lesson in 2008, which was a time that took out a snotload expediters.
10 and 15 years ago when things are good, and I mean really, really good, fifty percent of expediters who entered this business with a van were gone within a year, most not even lasting 6 months. Right now it's much worse.
People don't realize that we do 5 years worth of maintenance on our vehicles every year out here. It's an ongoing, never ending thing, and you can't wait until something breaks before fixing it. You have to be out in front of it and fix it before it breaks. It reaches up and slaps people in 6 months or a year and they're totally unprepared for it. Suddenly new brakes or an alternator puts you out of this business, because they don't know their Cost Per Mile and they've been running for rates where they are operating at a loss.
The Rule of Thirds is pretty unforgiving. In the example above at $1370 take-home after fuel isn't even close to the actual take-home. There are other operating expenses beyond fuel. Then a third goes to the truck, you get whatever is left for your third. When rates go below 70 cents your third becomes more like 20% or less.
If your CPM is 45 cents, and you run for 50 cents, then your third is literally 5 cents. But of course you'll take more than that, cause you gotta eat and pay the cell phone bill. You can do that for a little while, a few loads here and there. But it'll catch up to you, and now you need a new radiator and wheel bearings and ball joints and new tires and a water pump and you're screwed.
Everybody thinks they're going to be the exception, they'll do fine. But they invariably overestimate what they will make, usually by about double, and they underestimate their costs, usually by half.
