3% of trucking capacity GONE

EASYTRADER

Expert Expediter
I was listening to XM and OOIDA stated on their show that 3% of the US's truck capacity has disappeared so far this year.

That seems like a lot of trucks. I think we need to see more of a shakeout before rates move up to where they need to be.

anyway just thought I'd pass that on.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The New York Times article that prompted discussion in trucking circles was Soaring Fuel Prices Take a Withering Toll on Truckers.

The part that jumped out for me was, "...carriers with at least five trucks are also going out of business at an accelerating pace. In the first quarter, 935 of these larger operators shut down, the American Trucking Association reports, up from 385 a year earlier and the highest quarterly failure rate since the 2001 recession."
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
I would venture to guess that when the number hits around 6% we will see more screaming about shortages and if it hits 9% we may see rates increase and equalize enough. 3% is not going to effect anything when it comes down to it.

5 trucks or more on a carrier is considered a large carrier?
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
I just think it's funny that with all the reduced miles, lower tonnage and fewer trucks, not to mention the industry's own records showing otherwise, the oil industry keeps banging away at increased demand for diesel as a contributing factor in the prices.
 

CharlesD

Expert Expediter
I just think it's funny that with all the reduced miles, lower tonnage and fewer trucks, not to mention the industry's own records showing otherwise, the oil industry keeps banging away at increased demand for diesel as a contributing factor in the prices.

Whatever anyone says though, I refuse to believe that diesel should cost more than gas when it costs less to refine it. They're just blowing smoke.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
It costs less to refine, but it's that recent dramatic increase in demand that's causing it to cost so much. (Never mind that fact that there hadn't been any increase in demand.)
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
But we are leaving out another factor that is involved with Diesel prices, the competition with Europe with refined diesel on the open market. We don't refine all of the diesel we use, we import a bunch of it and this has been going on for a while. With the EU having a majority of Diesel cars and trucks and they are lagging behind in bio-fuels at a third (to one half) of our production, they are using as much diesel as they can get (remember that they EU has mandated Bio-fuel to be used and this is the real cause for food prices rising). Even with some of the deals that they made with Russia, who also provides a lot of oil to Europe, they still have not caught up to the demand of diesel. I don't think that they have the refining capacity anymore to produce enough from crude they get from Russia and the north sea to supply 60% of their needs.
 

iceroadtrucker

Veteran Expediter
Driver
I agree so why not build some refineries here in the US give the Americans Jobs to run them and Refine our own, Then Tap into more off shore supplies lets say Off of Florida , up in Alaska open some valves and lets do this. Bio Diesel is a good thing to but lets get reasonable, This country is going to Choke out on the stiff price of Oil and Fuel peroid. What happend to Russia is starting to happen here. Slowely but surely that supply vein is getting choked off by supply supposedly and then The Price. Like the Russinan Rubble did during the Regan era the Dollar is going down the drain.
Take a look at the British bound the Jap Yen and the EURO.
Ya been said before. Cooperate Farming, Cooperate Trucking.
The Price we pay for the Black Gold , Texas Tea is going to do this country in and the Jobs we all do now well with the exception of those that sit in there offices or on wall street we will be standing in soup lines or all become 27 cent a mile company drivers. MOST LIKELY. think about it.
The Strike was a joke and NO one Cared or Listened. The Govt is getting just what it wants all big business and push the small time guy out.
What a Plan them Politicans and Burocrats alike have not to mention Wall street the Comodaties hmm. just like a fish just cant break that $130lbs test line and get off the hook and were all being slowly reeled in.
So who U voting for ??? ya thats right thats another thread:)
 
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ericmoss37

Seasoned Expediter
The way to get the prices to go down is for every trucker to buy a few barrels of crude and then dump it all on the same day. If investers in America and Europe dump there oil shares we could see the price go down. Investers keep driving the price of a barrell up because more and more are buying and few are selling. How many trucks are there in the US? If every truck bought two barrells and dumped the stock on the same day we might get the price down. I take that back because it's like insider trading and is a highly punishable crime. See Martha Stewart case.
 

arrbsthw

Expert Expediter
"since the 2001 recession"...I have seen this written before but for the life of me..I don't remember anything about a recession
back then.
 

EASYTRADER

Expert Expediter
Its not speculators driving up oil prices. The large specs in the energy market are almost net short, while the commercials are almost net long, the small traders are net short. What this means in English is the market is in balance, there is no SPEC bubble. Prices may come down in the near future but hold onto your seat because it is more likely that prices will be close to 300 a barrel before it is over.

We are currently in a Primary BEAR stock market, the DOW bounced off the 200 day average.
When it approaches the March low, the FED bank will panic again and lower interest rates by another 25 to 50 basis points. This will stall the stock price decline but also force the Dollar index to new lows!!!

Oil trades in dollars so guess what oil goes up!!!

Save as much money as you can - because things are going to get worse before they get better. So I don't mean to doom and gloom but the Gov,t has really screwed things up this time.

The only reason we aren't sitting in breadlines right now is the Brazil, Russia, India, China, have punted socialism/communism for free market capitalism. If they can grow without our buying we'll be ok, but if any of those economies slow down the next four years will make the great depression look like a minor recession.

Its no coincidence that Bush appointed Bernancke to head the FED Bank. Bernancke wrote his doctoral thesis on the causes of the great depression, and things that might have been done to prevent it. So, if we skate through this one it will be his doing, However he is almost out of bullits. The good news is after the US economy colapses oil will fall back to 120 a barrel :)

Oh Yeah did I mention there are over 400 bank owned homes in my zip code alone, A little housing deflation isn't going to help things.
 
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OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
It would seem for the moment your thinking is flawed....


Crude Oil Falls to Two-Week Low on Bernanke Currency Comments

By Mark Shenk

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to a two-week low on signs that the U.S. will stop cutting interest rates to bolster the dollar after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he was ``attentive'' to the impact of the weak currency.

Energy and metals dropped after Bernanke said the Fed is working with the Treasury to ``carefully monitor developments in foreign-exchange markets'' and is aware of the effect of the dollar's decline on inflation. The falling dollar has helped lead commodities including oil, gold and corn to records this year.

``Bernanke is finally acknowledging that the weak dollar is a problem,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``If steps are taken to strengthen it we could see the commodity markets turn sharply lower. The first thing to do to support the dollar is to stop cutting interest rates.''

Crude oil for July delivery fell $3.45, or 2.7 percent, to settle at $124.31 a barrel at 2:47 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since May 15. Futures reached a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22. Prices are up 91 percent from a year ago.

U.S dollar is also UP .05%
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
"since the 2001 recession"...I have seen this written before but for the life of me..I don't remember anything about a recession back then.
I remember the 2001 recession well. I was getting paid $1.02/mile for my cargo van and the average price I paid for gasoline for the year was a $1.28. I don't know how I survived that one, but I'm still here and plugging away.
Today I am selling plasma and doing the fake 'I ran out of gas routine' so the highway helpers will give me a free gallon of gas. More plasma means more televisions. So use your economic stimulus check to buy a new t.v.
P.S. B.T. W. your H.D.T.V. may contain my D.N.A.
 

godslove139

Seasoned Expediter
The way to get the prices to go down is for every trucker to buy a few barrels of crude and then dump it all on the same day. If investers in America and Europe dump there oil shares we could see the price go down. Investers keep driving the price of a barrell up because more and more are buying and few are selling. How many trucks are there in the US? If every truck bought two barrells and dumped the stock on the same day we might get the price down. I take that back because it's like insider trading and is a highly punishable crime. See Martha Stewart case.
2 barrels of oil commodites.then all dump it on the same day.1 driver dumping 2 commodities oil, is know where near Martha Stewart was! She was with enron. were just a tapole in a pond.compaired to blue whale like what Martha Stewart was. we will be organized like the teamsters,uaw.American people shoving our foot up there rear.HOORA
 

greg334

Veteran Expediter
Today I am selling plasma and doing the fake 'I ran out of gas routine' so the highway helpers will give me a free gallon of gas. More plasma means more televisions. So use your economic stimulus check to buy a new t.v.
P.S. B.T. W. your H.D.T.V. may contain my D.N.A.

Moot,
Someone said that the reason there is global warming on Mars is there is too much plasma in the universe, so they are trying to get everyone to buy plasma tvs to save mars.
 

EASYTRADER

Expert Expediter
Don't get me wrong I'm not looking forward to 12 a gallon diesel or 300 dollar oil. But the Trend is the trend.
Back when I was a commodity broker, Oil was trading for 12 bucks a barrel, the dollar was worth twice what it is worth today and times were good. "Irrational Exuberance" is what Greenspan called it.

Anyway the trend in oil was DOWN, I had small retail client, after small retail client go BROKE buying that cheap oil, ignoring the trend, well the trend is your friend untill it ends and so far there is no indication of a top in oil. A 3% drop after a 91% increase doesn't flag a top.

I might be way off base but don't bet on. Unless our congress
opens up drilling in the US oil will keep going up.
 

Tennesseahawk

Veteran Expediter
Agreed!

One thing the American lemmings don't know about the Congress that promised lower gas prices when they were elected in 2006... if they voted TOMORROW to allow drilling in ANWAR, prices would go down TOMORROW.

To give them credit, the Repubicans failed to do so as well, thanx to the Rhinos.
 

sdelliott31

Expert Expediter
My Dad and I were curious as to the percentage of companies going out of business this year. Thanks for the info. We have 17 vans on with Panther. We just seem to be barely hanging on now. We feel like our overhead is as low as it can go. But we still pay for fuel for a lot of the drivers and I think we will have to eliminate that next. I've been burnt on the 60/40 split enough to think that paying for fuel and keeping an eye on the daily charges was the way to go. However, the price is going so high now, it is hard to do.
 
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