Be careful about how you interpret driver turnover statistics.
From a single carrier's point of view, a driver who comes in and quits in the same year has a 100 percent turnover rate. But where does the driver go? Does he or she leave the business or go to another carrier? Carrier turnover statistics do not say. Carrier turnover statistics only talk about the drivers who come and go from a particular carrier. A job-hopping driver who joins and leaves three carriers in a year would produce the individual 100 percent statistic three times in the same year.
Consider the case of Expediter Services where they moved a number of trucks from Express-1 to FedEx Custom Critical, and then did it again by moving a number of trucks from Panther to FedEx Custom Critical. The multiple exits from Panther and Express-1 would show up in their turnover stats but regarding the number of trucks and drivers in the industry, did anything change at all?
I am told that the surge of red trucks moving into FedEx Custom Critical prompted a number of contractors to leave. While their departure would show up in FedEx's turnover statistics, most of them would have gone to other carriers. Again, the turnover stats were affected, but industry-wide, did anything change at all?
With new people coming in and old people retiring or moving on to different careers, there will always be a certain amount of industry turnover. But the fact that drivers are moving frequently among carriers does not necessarily mean they are lost to the industry.
Carrier turnover and industry turnover are two different things and I have never seen an industry turnover stat. Driver turnover within a carrier is what it is. The combined turnover stats of all carriers are what they are.
However, high driver turnover stats do not indicate that a driver shortage is at hand. Indicators of a driver shortage would be freight sitting on docks because drivers cannot be found to move it, and trucks sitting idle in carrier yards because people cannot be found to drive them, and companies calling expediting carriers desperate to move freight at any price and offering $4.00 a mile to get Diane and me to haul their freight and not someone else's.
As I look around, I see the freight still moving and the trucks still rolling. Carrier profits are rising because truck capacity is tightening but trucks are not sitting for lack of drivers. High driver turnover, yes. But an industry wide driver shortage? I'm not so sure.
The Journal of Commerce article suggests that the turnover rate is proof that the economy is on the mend. While I agree that the economy is on the mend, I don't see how the driver turnover rate reported by carriers indicates it.
