http://www.joc.com/logistics-economy/japan-disasters-impact-autos-spreads
World's light-vehicle output could hit snag within eight weeks
The Japanese disaster's impact on global automotive supply chains "will worsen substantially before it improves" and could affect 15 to 30 percent of the world's light-vehicle output within eight weeks, a forecasting firm warned.
Automakers are rushing to re-engineer components or switch sourcing but their ability to make quick changes is limited by technology, capital and time constraints, said a research note by Michael Robinet, director of global production forecasts at IHS Automotive.
Several original-equipment manufacturers have resumed production of components to supply assembly plants in Japan and abroad, he said, but their ability to resume operations "is still variable and may be short-lived. … Component shortages have begun to affect locations outside Japan at both Japanese and non-Japanese OEMs."
Japanese automakers idled assembly lines after the earthquake and tsunami and resumed limited production this week. However, most Japanese plants remain idled amid concerns about power outages and disruptions to the flow of components.
Although the situation remains fluid, it's apparent that supply chain problems will soon result in idled factories around the world, Robinet said.
Japanese automakers are expected to see more serious supply-related disruptions in North American production, which will be "rolling and variable, although real," he said. For the three major U.S.-based automakers, "more acute effects are expected for the mid-to-late-April timeframe."
As plants' component stockpiles are depleted, shortages of electronics and other parts are expected to affect production in Europe and Thailand by mid-April, and in India and China later in the month, IHS Automotive said.
Toyota and Subaru have suspended overtime production at their U.S. plants in order to conserve parts supplies in the wake of plant shutdowns in Japan. Those automakers haven't cut U.S. production but Toyota's Japanese assembly plants, which produce 43 percent of the automaker's worldwide production, were to be closed through the weekend.
World's light-vehicle output could hit snag within eight weeks
The Japanese disaster's impact on global automotive supply chains "will worsen substantially before it improves" and could affect 15 to 30 percent of the world's light-vehicle output within eight weeks, a forecasting firm warned.
Automakers are rushing to re-engineer components or switch sourcing but their ability to make quick changes is limited by technology, capital and time constraints, said a research note by Michael Robinet, director of global production forecasts at IHS Automotive.
Several original-equipment manufacturers have resumed production of components to supply assembly plants in Japan and abroad, he said, but their ability to resume operations "is still variable and may be short-lived. … Component shortages have begun to affect locations outside Japan at both Japanese and non-Japanese OEMs."
Japanese automakers idled assembly lines after the earthquake and tsunami and resumed limited production this week. However, most Japanese plants remain idled amid concerns about power outages and disruptions to the flow of components.
Although the situation remains fluid, it's apparent that supply chain problems will soon result in idled factories around the world, Robinet said.
Japanese automakers are expected to see more serious supply-related disruptions in North American production, which will be "rolling and variable, although real," he said. For the three major U.S.-based automakers, "more acute effects are expected for the mid-to-late-April timeframe."
As plants' component stockpiles are depleted, shortages of electronics and other parts are expected to affect production in Europe and Thailand by mid-April, and in India and China later in the month, IHS Automotive said.
Toyota and Subaru have suspended overtime production at their U.S. plants in order to conserve parts supplies in the wake of plant shutdowns in Japan. Those automakers haven't cut U.S. production but Toyota's Japanese assembly plants, which produce 43 percent of the automaker's worldwide production, were to be closed through the weekend.
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