Predictions for 2005

[louixo]

I know that none of us has the proverbial crystal ball, but I do think we see trends on the horizon, even if we don´t recognize them. I´m taking time off, and when and if I come back out on the road in 2005, is still up for grabs. I´ll be coming back in as a single driver, and wanted to look into some other avenues of trucking/expediting. I read that flatbed expediting is starting to move, but is still labeled a hotshot operation. Also read that one of the larger expediting outfits is moving into trade shows, which I hauled for many years. I´d also like to hear from some of you single tractor trailer expediters. In expediting, I always ran a "D" unit. I don´t think a van or "C" unit is for me. It will be back to a "D" or TT, unless somebody can convince me otherwise. So, enlighten me with your thoughts, and reasons, and hope you all have a happy new year!!

 

[Broompilot]

Use to love following stocks etc. Do not follow as close as I use to but the out look is looking great incomes are up again but just a tick employeers are looking at hirring this year which means more freight more goods produced. As far as the dollar goes foreign goods are more expensive so the trade balance should slow thus America should produce more. This is what I have heard, stock market has had a nice increase in the last quarter but not blazing and that could not be any better. Keep our fingers crossed that it keeps improving.

 

[raceman]

BroomPilot Your information is pretty good and attitude sounds great. I hope you don't get your head chewed off for saying those positive things. I agree with what you have heard and most likely read as well. I have a great first quarter planned. We will be doing some giving back type work that actually will take about the first six months. I have very high hopes for my trucks as well. Folks told me last year at this time to get out and I continue to be happy that I did not. A lot of folks do take this time off due to the likely slow down. My drivers are planning to keep running.Thanksgiving took the wind out of one trucks but never slowed the other and so far other than yesterday they are still rolling.One loads later today and the other rolls at 9:00 Monday morning. Who knows what will happen. I am just good about keeping my head up and enjoying whatever the good Lord puts in front of me. Faith is a great thing to have. I do have that.

The Owner who once went by RACEMAN but due to the outcome of the Nextel Cup, am now just 6.

 

[NoProblem]

Broompilot, like raceman #6, I agree things are looking up. Like you, I followed the market full time for a while and as far as charts are concerned, chartists would most likely say we might have reached a temporary high and are due for a minor (seasonal?) "pull back" - heres a weekly chart showing "up, up and away":
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$TRAN,uu[h,a]waclnyay[vc60]
(might need to copy and paste to get the months to show)

Interesting how each Jan. it "pulls back" a little then starts climbing after a few months.

BTW, the stocks that make up this index are:

Airborne Freight
Alexander & Baldwin
AMR
Burlington Northern
CNF Transportation
Continental Airlines
CSX Corp.
Delta Airlines
Federal Express
GATX Corp.
J.B. Hunt Transportation Services
Norfolk Southern
Northwest Airlines Corp.
Roadway Exp.
Ryder System
Southwest Airlines
United Airlines
Union Pacific
US Freightways
Yellow

 

[Tom Robertson]

NoProblem...

The Dow Chart is right on with our companies numbers for 2004.

I certainly have no crystal ball, but I am bullish enough that I am investing into more trucks and as you know restructuring my little company to take advantage of the opportunities that presently exist.
I have been fortunate in the past to find a niche within the niche industry that works for our company and feel that we are positioned for 2005 to be a banner year, and a springboard to triple/quadruple our fleet within the next five years.

Count us in for growth in size, revenue and profits.

 

[rode2rouen]

Tom,

Does your company use any O/Os or company owned vehicles only?

Rex

 

[Tom Robertson]

Rex...
we are set up for comapny owned vehicles only...
the model is working well and I do not forsee a change

sorry

 

[ATeam]

You've heard the saying, "It's always darkest before the dawn?" I'm now looking on the flip side of that. We've been in boom times and optimism is easy to justify. But just as it's always darkest before the dawn, bright days give way to dark nights and I believe we're at that point now. The peak expeansion is behind us in the business cycle and contraction is on its way.

Steel prices have skyrocked and have not gone down.
Interest rates are on their way up.
The national debt is at all-time record levels.
Experts are wondering aloud why the bond market has not already tanked.
Expediter fleet sizes have grown, perhaps by too much.
A weak U.S. dollar shows no signs of recovery and with the national debt at record-high levels, it will likely remain weak because other countries will have to fund our nation's deficit spending.
Fuel prices remain high
Baby boomers are reaching retirement age, which will create worker shortages and increase political pressure for more deficit spending as these folks demand more and better nursing homes.

That's just off the top of my head. I'm not optimistic about our nation's economic future, and even less optimistic about the retirement lifestyles for most people. American's simply haven't saved enough money. Poverty awaits many good people that worked hard in good jobs for many years.

That said, successful expediters are not successful because they timed their business activities around the good times. They are successful because they have learned how to operate profitably in good times and bad.

Our plans are to buy a new truck and make a gazillion dollars!

 

[raceman]

Predictions are a tough business and if people could really do it well, would they not prove it by buying winning lottery tickets or at least have a snow shovel the day of a storm if you are in the weather business.(Cincinnati News weather person joke) Oh well. I said this earlier and it did not go over well but now that the other positive attitudes have come out, I will say it again. I do not see 2005 or the first quarter as a problem. I will admit though that I am not looking for one. If you look at all that has been mentioned to this point, it is all true and we have to understand that. We also have to look at all markets requiring transportation services and how they are being forced if not simply deciding to change the approach taken with inventories, loading and unloading, etc. I don't look at this as a slow time and I certainly do not look at the year as a bad one. 2005 to me is to be a very busy year. Far be it from me to rattle on but the way I look at and what I look at and how I look at the year is very different than many. Let me just say that there is no reason to picture slow times or failure when it is much easier on ones mind to picture very busy times and success. Giggle as you feel the need but 2005 looks very good to me. I may even take the time to hook up with someone like MTV and have them "Pimp My Ride" I am with the A-Team. I plan on a minimum of a gazillion dollars. I am gonna picture it right in my wallet. Now that you are finished giggling, I am sure someone with the proper skills will give the reasons why my God giving talent for predictions is worthless.
Overall there is reason to be somewhat nervous if you do not have a stomach for uncertainty but if you stay on top of what is happening and keep your eye on your bottom line, you will have the knowledge and the ability to get in another line of work before failure sets in.
Now many can poo all over this but this is how I see this business. In the case of my trucks they haul expedited freight not predictable freight. Just stay on it day by day and if it aint working out make a move before it breaks you. If it looks good put the pedal to the metal and get the box to the dock, then do it al over again.



The Owner who once went by RACEMAN but due to the outcome of the Nextel Cup, am now just 6.