RE: how to make inputs
Phil, no, the 300% figure was not meant to be any kind of an accurate figure, it was meant to be an absurd, sarcastic exaggeration. The sad thing is, it's not all that absurd.
The annual figures published by the ATA show the turnover rates for the industry at large, and have breakdowns for the various sectors within, like National TL, Small Carrier TL, large and small LTL, etc. These numbers from the ATA are all for company-based, employee trucking companies, not for owner/operator-based carriers.
Because of the driver shortage in those segments of trucking, the various companies offer a wide variety of perks and compensation packages to entice and retain. Because of the never-ending quest for the BBD (Bigger, Better Deal) you find drivers who are constantly "perk hopping" to find those few extra dollars and benefits. In expediting, it's not "perk hopping" so much as it is the hunt for the elusive, allusive, and illusive [font color="green"]greener grass. [/font color="green"]
Most recently posted numbers by the ATA show a turnover rate of 136% for the year ending 2006. That means that is you have 1000 drivers in your fleet, then you had 1360 drivers on the payroll at one time or another last year. For the first quarter of 2007 it was 127% (highest first quarter on record). Those numbers are for the large TL carriers. Small TL carriers have slightly lower rates, 102%. Large TLT line haul drivers have turnover rates in the 90-105% range, and small LTL drivers tend to have some of the lowest turnover rates, with some companies approaching less than 20% turnover.
The figures published by the various US government departments, Transportation, Commerce, both Employment and Unemployment, they all show a larger turnover rate for the trucking industry as a whole than do the ATA figures. The difference comes from the increased turnover rate for owner/operators and the owner/operator fleets, plus, it gets murky because these figures also include things like dump truck drivers, garbage men, school bus drivers, anyone with a CDL.
Accurate numbers for owner/operator-oriented segments of the trucking industry are hard to come by, for several reasons. One being, carriers are not as likely to want to publish these numbers, as they tend to be larger than the national TL average. In expediting, the turnover rates can be just silly, what with the proliferation of cargo vans that by their nature will have larger turnover rates, anyway. Low investment, people see a cargo van in expediting and think, "Hey, I can do that!" and they get a van and then within 4-6 months they're gone.
The owner-driven cargo van turnover rate can be pretty high as it is, but the rate can just explode when you have a large number of vans that are driven by non-owners. And the large expedited carriers tend to have larger percentages of non-owner driven cargo vans.
I really don't know that Panther's turnover rate is. But, they are one of the largest, which would likely mean a larger turnover rate. And, they tend to be fleet owner oriented rather than driver oriented, which means a larger percentage of non-owner drivers out there, and should therefor have a larger turnover rate than one might think.
Plus, if you stick your head into the room mid-morning on a Monday orientation and you see 30, 40, even 50 people, and you see the same thing every week that you look in there, it doesn't take much math to see that the numbers don't add up to lower turnover rates.
I don't think I'd be too far off with an educated guess of 150%.
Slow and steady, even in expediting, wins the race - Aesop