Manufacturing Jobs to Shift from China to US, Report Says

[OntarioVanMan]

Manufacturing Jobs to Shift from China to US, Report Says | Journal of Commerce


"Reshoring” trend expected to bring more factory work back to States over next 5 years

A big shift of manufacturing from China to the U.S. and other parts of North America will create up to 3 million U.S. jobs in coming years, says a study from Boston Consulting Group.

The report says labor costs in China are rising so fast, while U.S. productivity continues to climb, that the cost advantage of sourcing many types of goods production in China is rapidly shrinking.

“Factor in shipping, inventory costs and other considerations,” and for many types of goods “the cost gap between sourcing in China and manufacturing in the U.S. will be minimal,” according to the report.

 

[greg334]

So everyone get ready to chance your underwear over this exciting news - NOT.

The problem is that this is not really important.

Seriously it isn't.

3 million over 5 years amounts to 600000 jobs a year which may sound like a lot but it isn't. We need 400000 a month for at least a couple years to bring the unemployment level back down to a reasonable level and we need to see an increase in revenue for those who have been underemployed - about 20 million estimated.

On top of that, within that 5 years we will have 4 million newly minted adults coming into the work force.

China has an inflation problem and wages for some parts of their economy are rising but they tapped into only part of their labor reserves and can lower the wage issue if they wanted to.

Furthermore what has been happening with the automotive sector is driven by unions not real needs. There are some of these manufacturing jobs returning to North America for consumer goods because of a number of factors that are outside the issue of wages.

 

[OntarioVanMan]

Well then forget about 3 million jobs then..it is not important to them 3 million people who stand to maybe be employed...just discount it all together.. I guess when we lose 3 million jobs since it ain't no big deal...we should just say it is no big deal....

 

[paullud]

Greg you really need to look at the big picture, this isn't about the right now, it is about our future. The article is to show a positive trend for the US getting back manufacturing jobs which we have been all to willing to send overseas. A lot of manufacturing jobs can already provide a middle class living for people and when there is more jobs than people looking the wages can go up. This study is a good sign that America just fell into jobs that can help millions of people. I wonder what politician will try to take credit?

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

 

[OntarioVanMan]

If one can get past the US dollar being lower and it actually helps us in some good ways....Maybe it should have been devalued long before this....


The high Canada dollar vs the US dollar is hurting their exports/imports as well...

 

[OntarioVanMan]

Greg you really need to look at the big picture, this isn't about the right now, it is about our future. The article is to show a positive trend for the US getting back manufacturing jobs which we have been all to willing to send overseas. A lot of manufacturing jobs can already provide a middle class living for people and when there is more jobs than people looking the wages can go up. This study is a good sign that America just fell into jobs that can help millions of people. I wonder what politician will try to take credit?

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

Greg knows all too well....little steps are good....something has to get the ball rolling to turn this around....I'll take 3 million jobs any day as opposed to a lose...And he did not even mention the baby boomers about to retire...

 

[greg334]

Well then forget about 3 million jobs then..it is not important to them 3 million people who stand to maybe be employed...just discount it all together.. I guess when we lose 3 million jobs since it ain't no big deal...we should just say it is no big deal....

Well when it happens, it matters, this is not something that is a trend that can be counted on at this time, our economy is not doing well, there are issues with external forces and to be optimistic while being realisitic is far more prudent than cheering on job gains that may happen 5 years out.

The same thing is happening here in this God forsaken place called Detroit - they are all cheering the jobs that are "coming back" but don't get the idea that even if these jobs are at a reduced wage, the cost to the company is a lot higher than if they were off shore but more importantly the vitality of their company, like GM and Ford are SUPER dependent on the foreign markets like China and Asia and the NA market is still floundering for them so if China's/Asia's market would crap out, then we will see another bailout and another round of BIG layoffs. You have to ask yourself this - was it a wise move for Ford/GM to take government money though the EPA-DoE grants/Bailout respectfully to build up their holdings in China and Asia?

Remember that many consultants and "experts" claimed the influx of cash and the QE I/II would help the economy gain back its strength quickly but two years out, where are we?

Greg you really need to look at the big picture, this isn't about the right now, it is about our future.

I am looking at the big picture and not getting muttled with the emotional crap that many seem to be used to make the point about this being a good thing. Although it may be a good thing, until the jobs are created with a clear path to returning to pre-1980 manufacturing techniques, it is just speculation.

The article is to show a positive trend for the US getting back manufacturing jobs which we have been all to willing to send overseas.

Well it doesn't, that's part of the problem. The article shows an opinion of one consulting group and does not take into account the present and possible future of the economy, the issue of the Euro Zone issues affecting us and the issue of Mexico or South America taking those jobs from China. It does predict something may happen and nothing more.

A lot of manufacturing jobs can already provide a middle class living for people and when there is more jobs than people looking the wages can go up.

See that's true to a point, we shouldn't be striving just for manufacturing but we do and ignore history and the reality of the global market. In addition the middle class isn't what it used to be and surely isn't what the Unions made it out to be. The middle class has returned to the original group - those who are professionals and mobile in their profession, not labor.

If we want wages to go up, outside of an inflation adjustment, we will again face the same issue we did in the 1890s, 1907, 1920, the Depression, 1955, 1972 and the 80's.

This study is a good sign that America just fell into jobs that can help millions of people. I wonder what politician will try to take credit?

It's an opinion, not a full study. Help millions, look around and see who is not getting hired and why many are frustrated.

 

[charlies1gal]

You must also realize that because of this terrible economy, us "so called" Baby Boomers cannot afford to retire, therefore some of our jobs WILL NOT be up for grabs either. Just saying.

 

[Deville]

So everyone get ready to chance your underwear over this exciting news - NOT.

The problem is that this is not really important.

Seriously it isn't.

3 million over 5 years amounts to 600000 jobs a year which may sound like a lot but it isn't. We need 400000 a month for at least a couple years to bring the unemployment level back down to a reasonable level and we need to see an increase in revenue for those who have been underemployed - about 20 million estimated.

On top of that, within that 5 years we will have 4 million newly minted adults coming into the work force.

China has an inflation problem and wages for some parts of their economy are rising but they tapped into only part of their labor reserves and can lower the wage issue if they wanted to.

Furthermore what has been happening with the automotive sector is driven by unions not real needs. There are some of these manufacturing jobs returning to North America for consumer goods because of a number of factors that are outside the issue of wages.

People do retire, & sadly people do die so those numbers while yes they are low. They aren't as low as you may think. Remember Production creates production. Hopefully this is just the tip of the ice berg & this Country will begin a new 30 year cycle of prosperity.

 

[greg334]

Well that's true, the do retire and they do die but there also is a problem with the idea of filling jobs that used to be done by those who retire. A lot of companies are now elminating positions through attrition to gain a foot hold on the problems with the barriers of improving manufacturing or other things, and those numbers I put out there come from one of the economist who's job is to figure out these things.

Now here is the thing about prosperity, even if we are at the bottom of a 30 year cycle, we have lower standards than we did in 1930 with the weaken dollar and runaway spending. If we want to get back to the prosperity levels of say 1970, we need to seriously adjust our economy and our attitude about how we do things and return to those prudent ways of handling risks in our lives.

 

[LDB]

I'm negative on this whole report but not for the reasons Greg cites. I'm doubtful of the accuracy of the report and see it just as likely a ploy in the Obama re-election sham as it is an accurate report. If it is true and it brings those jobs back it is a good thing. While we need quadruple that rate at the very least it's certainly a help, if it is true. If it is true.

 

[OntarioVanMan]

Weakened dollar? As compared to what?...the past? Well this is the present and looking to the future..I think it is about fine where it is...It is a much different world then it was 30 yrs ago...We need other countries to buy our goods..

 

[greg334]

Well you can believe what you want but it isn't much different than it was 100 years ago. The financial cycles are going to be there and it matters not on what end of the cycle you are on but how you manage your debt/assets as a country that will see you through.

The propaganda that we now live in a global economy in the past 20 years comes down to forgetting the past and thinking that everything changes when in fact it doesn't.We lived in a global economy when we were a colony, it has not changed a bit and this is where people think that because we are trading with China or Mexico, we are in a global economy.

Weakening the dollar won't help us, it hurts us in many many ways, one is who wants to invest in a country where the labor is high and the debt is out of control?

Think about it this way, would you put your money into a bank that holds more debt than assets?

The strength of our dollar helps pay down the debt, it is the debt that holds us back as a country because we only have a finite amount of labor to do only so much to create wealth. We as a country lack hard assets because of our government, one of those hard assets is oil and minerals and another is material and equipment to produce. We have to decide how we need to use all of it to our advantage but won't until government at all levels give up control of the people while at the same time decreasing the debt.

Selling things to other countries solve one problem but not the one that you think. It will increase tariff revenue but not production, production is no longer a direct correlation to the amount of labor needed which in turn gives a direct ration of revenue for taxes - make sense?

 

[OntarioVanMan]

So your thesis is based upon the debt?.....

 

[greg334]

No reality.

Learn how this all works and why and you can see for yourself where the debt and lack of understanding about job creation sits.

One example is this;

Hoover in the beginning of the depression decided to push raising tariffs on imports. This sounded good (as it does for those union idiots today, raise tariffs on Chinese goods) but the affect is it started a trade war which messed us up and prolonged the depression to the point that Europe by the mid-30's were headed out of the depression but we were falling deeper into it.

So our debt is a form of a tax on the people, we are on the hook for the debt that our government creates and if we need to pay the debt down, it has to come from several sources of revenue, tariffs are one but so is labor.

SO going to labor, if we still think this is 1986 and it takes 40 people to assemble a car, then OK we are alright but this is not 1986, it is 2011 and if we actually want to build a car that competes with other cars, we will need only 10 people to assemble it and hence the revenue they produce through taxes is not enough to pay down the debt. THIS is one reason why debt is important.

Thinking that this is different from 30 years ago or what ever masks the actual way things work. In the case of Hoover, he and the congress thought we were strong enough to withstand any trade wars that we encountered but in truth we were in the same global economy then as now and the same result would happen if we play games with the same arrogance we have had.

 

[chefdennis]

OVM wrote:

Weakened dollar? As compared to what?...

FOREX-Dollar slumps to record low versus yen

Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:07am EDT
By Wanfeng Zhou
FOREX-Dollar slumps to record low versus yen | Reuters

* Dollar falls below 76 yen, biggest daily fall since Aug

* France and Germany eye two summits to hammer out deal

* Euro jumps versus dollar, but fall vs other rivals


NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slumped to a record low against the yen on Friday in its biggest one-day decline in nearly two months, bringing back into focus the threat of official intervention to weaken the Japanese currency.

Traders reported initial large selling of dollars from a U.K. clearer and macro funds, and losses accelerated after the pair broke through a series of stops around 76.30 and 75.90.

"No specific news. Just general investor impatience with the Bank of Japan's lack of a yen weakening policy," said Tommy Molloy, chief dealer at FX Solutions at Saddle River, New Jersey.

Talk that Japanese authorities may follow the footsteps of the Swiss National Bank in putting a floor in dollar/yen had buoyed the currency pair in recent sessions, but investors resumed yen buying after market speculation failed to materialize.

The euro rallied against the dollar, but fell against most other currencies, as doubts persisted that European leaders are able to deliver a solution to the escalating debt crisis soon.

The dollar fell as low as 75.78 yen on trading platform EBS , surpassing its previous record low of 75.941 set in August.

It last traded down 0.9 percent at 76.18 yen, coming off lows on reported buying from Japanese banks at the 76.00 level. At current levels, it was on pace for its biggest daily fall since Aug. 26.

If the yen does hold, it could hit 75.50 per dollar, followed by the 75.00 mark, Molloy said.

The euro last rose 0.8 percent to $1.3883 , recovering from a session low of $1.3703. It had hit as high as $1.3890 on Reuters data.

France and Germany said in a joint statement that European leaders would discuss a solution to the crisis on Sunday, but no decisions would be adopted before a second meeting to be held by Wednesday at the latest.

But the euro dropped 0.1 percent versus the yen to 105.76 . It also slipped 0.1 percent against sterling to 87.15 pence and lost 0.4 percent to 1.2269 Swiss francs .

 

[OntarioVanMan]

There is great speculation the Yen is artificially high...being propped up...

 

[greg334]

It is most definitely being propped up just as much as the Euro is being propped up by the Eurozone countries.

But the other part of the equation is if we raise interest rates to reasonable levels - like 4%, we will see our dollar rise.

The question I have been wondering about is this;

Is the US population actually as dumb as some economist feel to think that we can build exports at the same time having zero interest rates between the federal reserve and the banking system while sustaining the entire economy?

 

[layoutshooter]

It is most definitely being propped up just as much as the Euro is being propped up by the Eurozone countries.

But the other part of the equation is if we raise interest rates to reasonable levels - like 4%, we will see our dollar rise.

The question I have been wondering about is this;

Is the US population actually as dumb as some economist feel to think that we can build exports at the same time having zero interest rates between the federal reserve and the banking system while sustaining the entire economy?

Must be, they keep voting the same policy makers in! Besides, just as many before him, Obama is looking (forcing) outside conflict to stimulate the economy.

 

[greg334]

Hey Layout, I recommend a book for you to read, Liberal Fascism by Goldberg.