LTL Truck Rates Deteriorating

chefdennis

Veteran Expediter
Analyst Sees LTL Truck Rates Deteriorating

William B. Cassidy |
Dec 14, 2009 7:09PM GMT
Analyst Sees LTL Truck Rates Deteriorating | Journal of Commerce

The Journal of Commerce Online - News Story
LTL | Trucking | United States

Low prices drop further as carriers battle to fill networks, Longbow Research's Klaskow says

Already low less-than-truckload rates are falling further as truckers become “incrementally more aggressive," Longbow Research says.

LTL trucking companies such as Con-way Freight are cutting deep into prices to build volume, Longbow analyst Lee Klaskow said in a Dec. 14 note to investors.

Con-way's “aggressive pricing strategy has its network nearly at full utilization,” Klaskow said, while Old Dominion Freight Line — which reportedly resisted discounting in recent months — has “ready capacity.”

FedEx Freight and Con-way Freight “continue to be the leaders when it comes to aggressive pricing,” said Klaskow. “We believe pricing can do down even further as we head into the slow winter freight season.” Shippers report rate discounts as deep as 85 percent, Klaskow said.

LTL rates were already anywhere from 5 percent to 15 percent lower than a year ago going into December, according to analysts and carrier executives.

Klaskow expects bitter price battles in coming quarters, despite forecasts calling for higher demand and more stable rates. The first quarter is typically the weakest for freight, he said, “and we expect pricing to be exacerbated by looser capacity.”

Larger LTL carriers are also trying to keep pressure on YRC and other struggling competitors.

Earl Congdon, executive chairman of ODFL, in October said LTL pricing was “not sustainable,” implying the cost of full utilization can be too high, he said.

“Those carriers,” he said of competitors pricing at or below cost, “are not going to be able to operate with the prices they’ve been quoting.”
 
R

riverrat

Guest
the price wars that have been going on for a long time now is going to make this a tough business for many years to come.
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
the price wars that have been going on for a long time now is going to make this a tough business for many years to come.

I believe it is a short term strategy to speed up YRC's demise and prevent layoffs at healthy LTL companies. YRC should be dead and gone by March at which time LTL rates will slowly rise.
 

mjolnir131

Veteran Expediter
I believe it is a short term strategy to speed up YRC's demise and prevent layoffs at healthy LTL companies. YRC should be dead and gone by March at which time LTL rates will slowly rise.

Go Look at there chart of what they are trading at ugly ...

YRC on yahoo

... no make that UGLY
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
But who really gives a rats azz about YRC...why so much concern?

There is plenty of other LTL companies to fill the gap. pizz on the teamsters....
 

CharlesD

Expert Expediter
[q]“Those carriers,” he said of competitors pricing at or below cost, “are not going to be able to operate with the prices they’ve been quoting.”[/q]

And the sooner those kind of companies go under, the better.
 

jujubeans

OVM Project Manager
If yellow goes under it will be good for us, but many people will lose their jobs.

There would be some job loses especially white collar...the others that take over the customers would prolly have to put on more trucks... quite a few will be absorbed into the system..
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
If yellow goes under it will be good for us,
I don't see YRC's demise having an effect on "us" (expediters). Maybe for a very short term when shipper's freight is stranded in YRC's system.

quite a few will be absorbed into the system..
There aren't many union LTL carriers left. ABF isn't exactly a labor sponge. Younger Teamsters may have to start over at a non-union carrier. The older ones will retire, buy a van and sign on with an expedite carrier.

Who will be left to keep the Central States Pension Plan afloat? Could be another government bailout coming down the pike.
 

mjolnir131

Veteran Expediter
just for your fyi


YRC extends bondholder deadline, shares surge


YRC extends bondholder deadline, shares surge

December 16, 2009: 09:40 PM ET

* Bondholder approval now at 75 percent

* Deadline for bondholders extended another day

* Says secures credit amendment with lenders

* Shares jump more than 20 percent

* Teamsters blame Goldman for troubles-report

(Adds Teamsters blaming Goldman Sachs, Goldman response)

By Carey Gillam

OVERLAND PARK, Kan. (Reuters) - U.S. trucking giant YRC Worldwide still has not been able to secure a critical debt-for-equity exchange with bondholders, but is extending the deadline for bondholder approval of the exchange as it works with lenders to keep the company liquid.

Investors responded to news of the extension by pushing YRC shares up more than 20 percent Wednesday, heartened in part by the extent of the company's restructuring efforts and the apparent willingness of lenders to offer leniency.

"That lender group has a pretty vested interest in seeing them not go bankrupt," said Morningstar analyst Anthony Dayrit.

YRC is the nation's top less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier. It has been struggling to stay out of bankruptcy, laying off thousands of workers and cutting deals with labor and lenders as it tries to hold onto customers.

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters laid the blame for part of YRC's recent struggles at the feet of Goldman Sachs Group Inc, saying the Wall Street firm made derivatives trades that would have benefited from YRC's bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

"The relatively small benefit Goldman would derive for itself in fees or for clients from such a position is unconscionable given the fact that the 50,000 livelihoods could be ruined by a bankruptcy filing," Teamsters President James Hoffa wrote in a letter dated Dec. 16 to Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, which was obtained by Bloomberg.

"Goldman does not have a position in the company, nor are we making markets in the company's bonds or credit-default swaps," a Goldman Sachs spokesman said.

YRC is trying to get 95 percent of its bondholders to agree to swap about $536.8 million in debt for equity. But the Overland Park, Kansas-based transportation company has obtained only 75 percent acceptance.

It said Wednesday it was extending the offer for the second time, hoping to get greater participation. The new deadline is 11:59 p.m. EST on Dec. 17.

Some analysts expected YRC to announce a reduced threshold for acceptance. JP Morgan analyst Thomas Wadewitz said in a report to investors Wednesday that it was likely the 95 percent goal would be cut back, with 80-85 percent of bondholder acceptance more realistic.

"We believe there is a reasonable chance that YRCW will ultimately complete its notes exchange," Wadewitz said in the report.

The company said Wednesday that it had entered into its 13th credit agreement amendment with lenders to continue to provide YRC with a $950 million senior revolving credit facility and a loan of about $111.5 million.

The company said the lender agreement extends the deadline for YRC to complete the exchange offers to Jan. 12, 2010 and extends the date when YRC must begin to comply with the minimum available cash covenant to the earlier of Jan. 12, 2010 or the date that the exchange offers are complete.

YRC officials would not comment, but said in a statement that they were "pleased with the progress" they were making on the exchange offer.

The moves come after the company last week said it was cutting more costs by slashing compensation for its nonunion employees.

YRC plans to issue up to 42 million shares of common stock and 5 million shares of Class A convertible preferred stock in the exchange, which would give noteholders 95 percent of its common stock.

Dahlman Rose analyst Jason Seidl said he did not expect YRC to secure much more than the 75 percent in bondholder approval already achieved, and the company's fate largely rests with lenders and how far they would be willing to go to keep the company afloat.

"We're on the cat's ninth life," Seidl said. "If this doesn't get done, I think they will go with a prepackaged bankruptcy."

YRC shares rose 21.85 percent to close at $1.01 on Nasdaq. (Reporting by Carey Gillam. Additional reporting by Steve Eder. Editing by Robert MacMillan and Richard Chang)
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
There are some great lines in that article:

* Shares jump more than 20 percent

* Teamsters blame Goldman for troubles


My favorite:

"That lender group has a pretty vested interest in seeing them not go bankrupt," said Morningstar analyst Anthony Dayrit.

I guess that lender group also has no interest, vested or otherwise, in owning a trucking company.
 

mjolnir131

Veteran Expediter
When your shares are going for under 5 bucks a pop,it's very easy to get a 20% swing for as little as 5000 dollars actual capitol
 

Crazynuff

Veteran Expediter
There would be some job loses especially white collar...the others that take over the customers would prolly have to put on more trucks... quite a few will be absorbed into the system..

Do you think Teamsters will take the lower wages of the other carriers ? Do you think those carriers will want to hire drivers used to working with a union mindset when there are thousands of nonunion drivers out of work and thousands of CDL mill graduates with the "will work for food , any job is better than no job " attitude ?
Emerson Electric is shutting down their private fleet and has contracted Schneider to haul their freight . I talked to an Emerson driver . Of those choosing to apply at Schneider over 20 have been rejected .
 

Jefferson3000

Expert Expediter
YRC will indeed affect expedite, especially if your company ever hauls loads for Exact Express. The work won't go away though. It will just get absorbed by another 3PL.
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
Do you think Teamsters will take the lower wages of the other carriers ? Do you think those carriers will want to hire drivers used to working with a union mindset when there are thousands of nonunion drivers out of work and thousands of CDL mill graduates with the "will work for food , any job is better than no job " attitude ?
Emerson Electric is shutting down their private fleet and has contracted Schneider to haul their freight . I talked to an Emerson driver . Of those choosing to apply at Schneider over 20 have been rejected .

As I said quite a few will be absorbed...why Because they have the 2 years recent experience and the ones with the best attitude and work history will be hired...the union supporters will be filtered out..
 
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