Forecasts are frequently offered here in the Open Forum. Statements like the following are often made: freight prices will decline, big carriers will gobble up smaller carriers, small carriers will weaken big carriers, a recession is coming, a recession is not coming, independent contractors will become employees, expediting itself will disappear as non-expedite carriers move freight faster, truck driver wages will plummet, fuel prices will continue to rise, the market for expedite reefer freight will dry up, the fleet owner business model is fading away, etc. etc. etc.
Today is January 1. Industry publications and media outlets are reporting a host of forecasts. They range from astrologer predictions about what movie star will have a baby, to financial analyst forecasts about the stock market, to views offered by political pundits about how many seats in Congress the parties will hold.
When a forecast is offered, here on EO or elsewhere, readers get to judge its value. To those who wish to better judge the forecasts they hear, and get better at making their own, I offer an article by Paul Saffo, a professional forecaster of some distinction. It is entitled "Six Rules for Effective Forecasting."
Link: Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
Saffo introduces it saying, "Even after you have sorted out your forecasters from the seers and prophets, you still face the task of distinguishing good forecasts from bad, and that’s where this article comes in. In the following pages, I try to demythologize the forecasting process so that you can become a more sophisticated and participative consumer of forecasts, rather than a passive absorber. I offer a set of simple, commonsense rules that you can use as you embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Most important, I hope to give you the tools to evaluate forecasts for yourself."
It is not light reading. But for thoughtful expediters who plan to be in the business ten years from now (however it may look), I believe Saffo's piece is worth the time. It will give you plenty to think about as you drive overnight and on to your future.
Today is January 1. Industry publications and media outlets are reporting a host of forecasts. They range from astrologer predictions about what movie star will have a baby, to financial analyst forecasts about the stock market, to views offered by political pundits about how many seats in Congress the parties will hold.
When a forecast is offered, here on EO or elsewhere, readers get to judge its value. To those who wish to better judge the forecasts they hear, and get better at making their own, I offer an article by Paul Saffo, a professional forecaster of some distinction. It is entitled "Six Rules for Effective Forecasting."
Link: Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
Saffo introduces it saying, "Even after you have sorted out your forecasters from the seers and prophets, you still face the task of distinguishing good forecasts from bad, and that’s where this article comes in. In the following pages, I try to demythologize the forecasting process so that you can become a more sophisticated and participative consumer of forecasts, rather than a passive absorber. I offer a set of simple, commonsense rules that you can use as you embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Most important, I hope to give you the tools to evaluate forecasts for yourself."
It is not light reading. But for thoughtful expediters who plan to be in the business ten years from now (however it may look), I believe Saffo's piece is worth the time. It will give you plenty to think about as you drive overnight and on to your future.
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