Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Business?

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I'm not looking for political commentary in this thread. The Soapbox forum is for that. This is a business question.

With the election over and results now known, what, if anything, will you do different with your expedite business?

To answer my own question and set the tone for replies:

In the near term, Diane and I (one-truck owner-operators leased to Landstar Expresse America) will do nothing different. We saw a healthy upturn in rates last month and enjoyed the highest gross-revenue month we have had in nine years of expediting. When something like that develops, the sensible thing to do is to keep doing what you are doing; which is stay in service and make hay while the sun shines. The plan is to keep running through Christmas, celebrate the holidays with relatives at home in Minnesota like we always do, and then take a winter break in Florida where we have a vacation home.

Longer term, it appears that we will be forced to put tens of thousands of dollars into our truck (2006 Volvo) to make it and the reefer California compliant. The truck has too many good years and miles left in it to think about trading it in on another. California is too important of a market for us to ignore.

Nothing in the election results suggests that California's requirements will be modified in a favorable way. If we want to continue serving that market (we do), we are left with no choice but to bite the bullet and spend the money to upgrade our truck and reefer.

We will likely replace the entire reefer instead of just upgrading the engine to become California compliant. It makes little sense to put a new engine in an old reefer. We have never had a reefer engine issue. It's the other stuff that goes wrong when something does. While the reefer runs like a top now, and has done so with just a few repairs in its six-year history, a full reefer replacement makes sense because the other stuff is aging.

It also makes sense because the reefer is becoming an increasingly important part of our business, now and in the future. Reefer loads have been infrequent at Landstar in the 16 months we have been here, but when they come, they pay great. Two or three of those loads would pay enough to fund a full reefer replacement. In fact, they already have. Cash from those loads was banked to fund a reefer replacement.

Also, with Landstar gearing up to do more reefer business, more reefer business can be expected. With more reefer business expected, we like the idea of having a brand-new, fully reliable reefer.

The election results did nothing to ease concerns about the coming fiscal cliff. No one knows at this point how that issue will play out in Washington and in the global and U.S. markets. Know one knows how fiscal cliff developments will affect expediting. When faced with that much uncertainty, all we can do is be as flexible as possible and stand prepared to act, one way or another.

We may end up parking the truck and extending our Florida vacation if freight dries up and rates collapse. Or we may cut the vacation short to take advantage of great opportunities that the marketplace may serve up. It is impossible to know at this point but we are prepared either way.

Longer term, we plan to continue as a one-truck, owner-operator, married-couple expediter team as we have for the last nine years. No expansion to a fleet operation is planned. That is not so much a function of the economy and the 2012 election as it is us living our lifestyle of choice.

Longer term still, we continue to save and invest for retirement. The government has already reduced the social security benefits it promised years ago and we expect more cuts in the future. As self-employed expediters, the only health care and retirement benefits we have are what we provide. With social security benefits doubtful in the future, we're on our own when it comes to funding retirement.

The short story is that the government is forcing us to spend tens of thousands of dollars on a truck that needs no repairs, and they are forcing us to pay self-employment taxes while cutting the retirement income benefits those payments were once supposed to provide.

The 2012 election changed none of that so we press on, doing the best we can, and doing everything we can to pass our costs onto the customer by pricing our services as high as possible. Our post election strategy is the same as before; provide premium services, pricing those services as high as the market will bear.

That's my answer, now back to you. With the election over and results now known, what, if anything, will you do different with your expedite business?
 
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paullud

Veteran Expediter
We have been doing very well in our industry and seen some pretty good rate increases. I plan to buy a truck in the spring and start to make the move to fleet owner. I will start saving up cash and not waste as much while waiting for certain stocks to fall then invest it when I think the time is right.

Sent from my ADR6400L using EO Forums
 

CharlesD

Expert Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

I'm not sure how to answer this without getting too political, but here goes.

For the most part we're not going to change anything at all. Currently we're not recruiting cargo vans and focusing on large straights. We just signed on our first tractor. We're going to continue our focus on providing good service and we're going to try to expand our freight sources, possibly looking at a sales person in the near future.

There are other aspects of where we are now as a company that I have been putting off until I saw how the election was going to go, and I'll address those as well as I can without going too political. Currently we have dispatchers who work from home and get paid a commission of whatever freight they book. We have certain trucks assigned to each person. That works pretty well because people will work like crazy to try to keep their trucks moving because they make more money if they book more freight.

At out current size, that seems to work ok, but if we grow much more I think I'm going to be wanting to look into some small office space and having everyone under one roof. The thing with that is that I don't know if I could continue with the current model of people being commission only 1099 contractors. I also don't like the idea of the government mandating what health benefits I have to provide if I go the employee route, especially mandating that those plans cover certain things that I feel would be in violation of my religious liberties.

So that's the kicker. I need to do a bit more research on that since it now appears that it's not likely to get repealed any time in the near future. If I put people in an office, then I probably need to make them employees, but how much of a bite is that going to take out of our already fairly small profit margin? I guess the solution would be some mix of part time employees and 1099 contractors.
 

Falligator

Expert Expediter
On the "bright side of expediting", with a possible new recession looming we may see an uptick in expedited freight. This was the case during the "Great Recession". Companies only shipping out 1 or two skids may be inclined just to call an expedite truck instead of waiting for a semi to haul it. But the prospect of higher fuel costs will make it harder. Then again with less demand the cost of fuel may go down. Depending on what happens with Iran. I've been slightly busier in the last couple of weeks than the last three months. Who knows we'll see. As far as my plans it will be stay out as much as I can and grab the $$ until the first quarter slow down.
 

davekc

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Fleet Owner
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

We don't plan on major changes but the jury is out on whether we would expand beyond where we are at. While we don't have the reefer issues, regulations of many forms will guide future decisions. Truck costs and replacements will really have to get scrutinized. The 100k truck five years ago is now 150k. A new wave of emissions in 2016 will move that price to 165k.
As far as operating costs, one could do a whole forum on that, but they aren't getting any cheaper.
Not all is gloom and doom but I think future startups will come to a crawl as many will simply be priced out of the market. Tighter credit, higher truck prices, and a used truck market that is drying up will drive that.
 

OntarioVanMan

Retired Expediter
Owner/Operator
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

I see no changes pending...little effects us CVers.....we have no regulations, we have no rules....we are the vagabonds of freight...:)
 

aquitted

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Learn chinese
 

moose

Veteran Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Getting out of debt!.
I'm planing for the worst, so i can position myself well on the other side of the $ devalue.
it will take some time. hopefully we have one or 3 years before the real recession, but it can happen every day now.
tho'w i have opportunity's to expend, investing in transportation of any kind, is investing in a service that will not be in demand.
as you can read in my signature line, i am also selling all of my dollars, and trading my hard earned $'s for items that will be in great demand.
as a self employed, i will invest the bare minimum on health or retirement - that's just throwing money away.
i am also paying upfront any money or taxes owed to the Gov.
i sold my Hino expediter under an owner finance contract, and will never look back.
if i may give an bird overlook advice?, get out of Expedite as soon as you can, this kind of service have an unknown life span. a paid for tractor can haul freight that box truck can't.
i am also working with my carrier to make sure our costumers understand the current costs of doing business, not an easy task.
in the next few years i am expecting ever increasing higher taxes, and working my way to ensure i can stay in business longer then my competition.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

While we don't have the reefer issues, regulations of many forms will guide future decisions. Truck costs and replacements will really have to get scrutinized. The 100k truck five years ago is now 150k. A new wave of emissions in 2016 will move that price to 165k.

Diane and I have until year-end 2013 to meet the Califiornia requirements if we wish to continue to run our truck engine and reefer in that state. With it now clear, after the election, that regulatory relief is not going to come, I started ballparking our compliance costs and options.

Dave is right about increasing truck prices and operating costs. It is not a pretty picture.

One option under consideration is to buy a cab and chassis that would be California compliant off the lot and move our sleeper, reefer, reefer body and lift gate onto it. In 2006, we paid $90,498 to buy a new Volvo day cab and chassis, on which the rest of the truck was built. Checking today, I learned that the same cab and chassis would cost $123,000. The equipment is identical except a Volvo I-Shift transmission would be in it instead of the Arvin Meritor Freedomline transmission we have now. The EPA add ons would be different too. These prices are before FET.

That's a $32,500 increase in just six years on the cab and chassis alone! And most of that is due directly to government regulations; regs that will likely remain in place given the election results.

We have already seen in the expedite market that fewer new trucks are being purchased. Or if new trucks are purchased, they are more modest than before. I do not expect that trend to reverse soon. With price increases like this, profits may erode to the point where expediters who know how to run the numbers will conclude that it is no longer worth it to stay in the business.
 
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moose

Veteran Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

IF...IF they kick the Fiscal cliff can down the road, which is a big IF,
then i think 2013 is shaping up to be a good year for expediters.
with businesses holding investment for some time now, and after the election, i'm betting on an stimulus package, or bailouts for employers to 'ease in' the Obama care.
(larger bails will be offered for employers that will choose to unionized) .
Moosenews.com

BTW Phil, that truck cannot be build on today's Volvo, weigh wise.
 
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xmudman

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Diane and I have until year-end 2013 to meet the Califiornia requirements if we wish to continue to run our truck engine and reefer in that state. With it now clear, after the election, that regulatory relief is not going to come

I can understand why Cali wants new reefer engines; there hasn't been a lot of reefer emissions control until recently (from what I can see on the Mighty Google), and reefers by their nature run more hours than the truck engines themselves.

But why do you have to replace a 7-year-old engine? According to this document

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/onrdiesel/documents/FSRegSum.pdf

you should be able to install a particulate matter filter (no later than 31 December 2013) and be good until 2022. I'm not doubting you, I'm just offended at the very idea of being forced to spend tens of thousands of dollars on a new engine, when the old one is still in top shape.

Worst case scenario, I assume you have good maintenance records on truck and reefer. That would allow you to gain a significant advantage when reselling your old equipment to a 49-state buyer :)
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

But why do you have to replace a 7-year-old engine? According to this document

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/onrdiesel/documents/FSRegSum.pdf

you should be able to install a particulate matter filter (no later than 31 December 2013) and be good until 2022. I'm not doubting you, I'm just offended at the very idea of being forced to spend tens of thousands of dollars on a new engine, when the old one is still in top shape.

I find it offensive too if not outright confiscatory. There is nothing wrong with our reefer now. It is a perfectly good machine. And it was EPA and CARB compliant when we purchased it, then in good faith. I resent being forced by rules retroactively applied to spend thousands of dollars like this.

If not for CARB, we would be making no changes at all and would continue to run the equipment with confidence for more as many years as made sense.

But CARB is forcing us to make a move of some sort by year end 2013 if we want to continue running in California. More states may adopt CARB standards also, further shrinking the non-CARB market. The 47 state reality may not be so for long.

(And really, how much air quality improvement will be realized from our low-hours, small engine operation? It's not like we are running a dirty engine now. It is well maintained and less than seven years old.)

We have been following this for several years and paid only scant attention to it because the rules changed as the political winds blew and marketplace realities changed. But the clock continues to tick and our moment of truth is coming.

Do we go with a DPF on the reefer (price unknown) or a new engine ($7,000) or a whole new reefer? Our bias at this point is to replace the entire reefer.

The price difference between the DPF and engine was not so great as to make it a clear choice. Landstar's expansion into the reefer business, plus the great reefer loads we have had from them already (the majority into and out of California), lead us to want an all-new reefer.

As I said, there is nothing wrong with the present one, but if we are going to spend thousands on an upgrade, we feel we want to spend even more to be fully prepared to provide many more years of reliable reefer service.

We don't have to buy a new reefer, but we would rather do that than put a new engine in an old reefer and then see non-engine components fail a few years down the road.

Worst case scenario, I assume you have good maintenance records on truck and reefer. That would allow you to gain a significant advantage when reselling your old equipment to a 49-state buyer :)

I once thought so too but was shocked to learn that if we replace the reefer engine, the dealer is required by law to drill holes through the old one. I don't know if it is possible to sell or trade an entire used reefer intact when we put a new one in or if, like an engine replacement, they will require us to destroy it.

That's what I mean by "outright confiscatory." This equipment used to belong to us and was ours to do with as we pleased. Government action has taken that freedom away, and at great expense to us.

We have looked at other options. The truck engine must go through an expensive upgrade too, per CARB. As we began looking into that, and wondering if we would be able to pass these costs on to our customers, getting out of trucking became an option to consider. And we are considering it seriously.

We have never been trucking to just get by or mark time. The money must be there to justify these upgrades. Otherwise, its out of trucking we go.

When we go home for Christmas this year, we will be interviewing for information a franchise opportunity that we have the capital to get into and that has a certain appeal. The money we'd sink into the truck to upgrade it, or the money used to buy a new truck, may be better used to fund our entry into another business.

That is not firm. It's an option being researched. As I said, we are only interviewing for information at this point. Sadly, the thought of us leaving the industry next year never entered our minds until we felt CARB's boot coming down on our necks and the 2012 election made it clear that regulatory relief is unlikely to come.
 

jjoerger

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
US Army
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Since nothing has changed we plan to change nothing.
 

zorry

Veteran Expediter
Phil, is this an option? Line up your new reefer. Then go to a smaller repair shop and sell them your old reefer. Or retail it and arrange for small shop to pull it and hold for new owner.
Then run dry until you get over to the new install.
Alot depends on value of old unit. And cost to remove.
I'm troubled by the idea of destroying a perfectly good unit.
 

jjoerger

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
US Army
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Phil, is this an option? Line up your new reefer. Then go to a smaller repair shop and sell them your old reefer. Or retail it and arrange for small shop to pull it and hold for new owner.
Then run dry until you get over to the new install.
Alot depends on value of old unit. And cost to remove.
I'm troubled by the idea of destroying a perfectly good unit.

I was wondering the same thing. Why not pull it off, store it and sell it on ebay or craigslist?
It's still good everywhere except CA.
 

xmudman

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

I once thought so too but was shocked to learn that if we replace the reefer engine, the dealer is required by law to drill holes through the old one.

Outside California? Surely you can't be serious!

Don't call me Shirley - YouTube

If you're looking for a franchise opportunity, my town could use a Taco Bell... :D
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Outside California? Surely you can't be serious!

It is what two reefer dealers told me when we were researching an engine change. One was in MN, the other in TN.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Re: Election Over: What, If Anything, Will You Do Different With Your Expedite Busine

Phil, is this an option? Line up your new reefer. Then go to a smaller repair shop and sell them your old reefer. Or retail it and arrange for small shop to pull it and hold for new owner.
Then run dry until you get over to the new install.
Alot depends on value of old unit. And cost to remove.
I'm troubled by the idea of destroying a perfectly good unit.

I am troubled by that too. Our research is just now beginning in earnest. We have until year-end 2013 before any deadline would affect us.

The track CARB now seems to be moving to is that reefers and truck engines will have to be replaced every seven years, regardless of when they were installed, how clean they run, or how well they may be working at the time. If we replaced our reefer engine tomorrow, I believe CARB would make us replace it again in seven years. I'm not sure exactly if the same applies to truck engines but that seems to be the case. I have a hard time believing that but have yet to find information to the contrary.
 

zorry

Veteran Expediter
I believe you Phil. That's something you wouldn't get wrong twice.
It's totally wrong.
 
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