About This "Recession"

[dieseldiva]

I would like the opinion of "oldtimers"....lets go back to 2002 and before.

We started in this business in July of 2002. Looking back now, I'm wondering if the time span of a year after 911 would be qualified(in your opinion) as a recession. If so, how did you fare compared to years prior? As newbies, it seemed to us that all was well but we had nothing to compare it to and were still pretty much in la la land!!

 

[TeamCaffee]

We have not owned our truck long enough to know exactly what a lengthy recession is like. I feel like every year we go through some sort of recession when we have the slow months. You have to be prepared each year for the slow times.

Just because you make it you don't have to spend it is my motto!! We live by these thoughts:

Put away for the slow times. Get rid of the credit card balances. Try to have your truck payments paid ahead a few months. Have money set back for repairs. Making saving a goal or as I have it a great hobby!!

 

[fastman_1]

I've been around since 97 and since 9/11 its got a light tighter. You have to watch every penny and I mean every penny, I have to sit back and weigh the advantages of running the toll roads? and 9 times out of 10 I take a pass on them. I used to stay in a motel once a week for that good nights rest now I have to stay out 2 weeks before I consider a motel so yep I feel its a recession.






































Owner/Operator since 1979
Expediter since 1997
B Unit Semi Retired
Somedays are Diamonds and Somedays are Stones
Home is Wherever you Park.
The Price of Freedom is Written on the Wall.

 

[x06col]

"Were still pretty much in lala land"? Like Dave suggests all corrections will present opportinities for some and poo sandwitches for others. Seems like as your business matures (any business)each day presents new challenges. In this business there have been peaks and valleys from day one. Divide and overcome. Fuel costs are our largest dragon to slay. Everything else is pretty much manageable, depending on how far the manager is still in lala land.

 

[ATeam]

It is good to be clear about what one means exactly when the word "recession" is used. When I refer to a recession, I am using the textbook definition; which is, two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product. Alternatively, two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

A recession is part of the macroeconomic business cycle. The opposite of a recession (economic decline) is called "expansion" (economic growth). For more on this see Reply 7 in the EO Open Forum thread, "A Question For Expediting Veterans About Recession"

http://www.expeditersonline.com/dcforum/DCForumID1/6118.html#7

Business cycle phases are documented by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). While NBER uses a slightly different definition of recession, the concept is essentially the same. According to them, the last recession began in March, 2001, and ended in November, 2001. The recession before that began in July, 1990, and ended in March, 1991.

Between 1945 and 2001, there have been ten recessions that lasted an average of 10 months. The shortest lasted six months. The longest (two of them, actually) lasted 16 months.

The expediting industry is about 25 years old. For the so-called old-timers that wish to relate their experience to the NBER recession dates of the last 25 years, the dates are:

JAN 1980 - JUL 1980 (06 months)
JUL 1981 - NOV 1982 (16 months)
JUL 1990 - MAR 1991 (08 months)
MAR 2001 - NOV 2001 (08 months)

NBER Home Page: http://www.nber.org/

 

[davekc]

RE: About This

9/11 was a temporary slow down for roughly a month. A true recession goes for months. Most of it his expediting starting in 2000 and lasting roughly a year. We knew it was here when trucks would be lined up in Chicago (TA on 90) for a week, and still be there the next.
At that time we were with a carrier that overpopulated the fleet, and then the bottom fell out.
Some survived, but many did not.
Actually, this isn't must different than the early eighties when we were hauling oil rigging pipe and supplies along the gulf. It went bust with the rest of the oil industry, and we moved to expediting.
The only salvation then was I had a career in another non trucking field that kept us afloat.









Davekc
owner
23 years
PantherII
EO moderator

 

[dieseldiva]

RE: About This

Thanks Dave, that's what I was after.

 

[davekc]

RE: About This

No problem,
I figured that was alittle closer to what you were looking for.









Davekc
owner
23 years
PantherII
EO moderator

 

[grog111]

RE: About This

Just as Dave said, the year 2000 sounds about right. I was working for an expediting company in Romeo, Michigan. We ran 90% auto freight. Business for the previous two years had been booming. We had 80 or so trucks on that fall. We had our usual slow down in January, no big deal, that's why ya squirrel money away in September and October,(super busy times), things slow down in November and start cranking up again around late Feb. or early march. That year, things died and stayed dead. By June, most of us were tired of staring at each other at the yard. Up until that point Most of us did 4 or 5 locals per day. Most of us had nice cars and took nice vacations and had plenty of money for toys. By the end of Feb. guys started looking very hungry. By The end of march a lot of guys were at the end of their ropes. The end of April began a mass Exodus. At that point we were looking at about six months of running two maybe three loads per day. That equaled about half a pay check. Ford and the auto guys were going through tough times, lay-offs, shut downs, buyouts. Visteon and Delphi were the split off factions trying desperatly to get traction. NLM and Penske were trying to tweak their systems and guys at romeo were abandoning ship in droves. Everyone was looking for another company who, maybe had an in with Ford or some other supplier. Tractor trailer guys left to go over the road. The guys in straight trucks who didn't go broke, or bankrupt, or get their trucks repo'd scrambled for work. We started looking for out of town runs, anything for a few miles that would keep some cash flowing in. We dead-headed constantly because fuel was only 97 cents a gallon. Those of us who managed to keep our heads above water breathed a collective sigh of relief when there was an uptick in business in 2002. Now, as I watch with anxious curiosity as i see all these familiar things falling into place, i watch as people scramble. Those with spouses who work or other forms of income keep swimming, while guys in vans who used to be sole supporters are all but extinct. Guys trade up thinking, "maybe if i get a sprinter" or "maybe if i get a straight truck" or "maybe if i get a team". But the truth is, that if your not a husband and wife team, with all your money going into the same pot...well, lets just say, there is no extra money. Unless you are horrifyingly frugal or unbelievably lucky your chances of failing at this are far greater than your chances of success. And with the lifestyle that comes with this job...well, lets just say if you cant even afford to eat at Mcdonald's a couple times a week, why do it? And its tough to even try to stay positive because lets face it folks, fuel prices ain't coming down. And we cant out run the emissions standard forever. Were all gonna have to buy a new truck sooner or later. And judging by what I'm seeing right now, the Mexicans will make it up here eventually. So , recession or not, unless you find a special little niche for yourself , we should all be looking at our business "plans" and project out a few years, and plan accordingly. And by the way, Yes Virginia,the sky is falling

 

[dieseldiva]

RE: About This

>And by the way, Yes Virginia,the sky is falling

What, no Santa Claus??
:+ :+ :+

 

[grog111]

RE: About This

Due to the current recession Santa Claus regrets to inform you that he'll have to start charging a modest reindeer chow surcharge :7